Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
